Emissions Scenarios: A Final Response

Learning from global emissions scenarios

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to devel...

Interpreting the IPCC Emissions Scenarios

This paper discusses how two sets of emissions scenarios, generated using the Atmospheric Stabilization Framework, were used by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In particular it discusses how the scenarios were specified, what roles models played in developing the scenarios, and how the scenarios were interpreted by participants in the IPCC process. It draws ...

Carbon Emissions Scenarios for China to 2100

Please note that Tyndall working papers are "work in progress". Whilst they are commented on by Tyndallresearchers, they have not been subject to a full peer review. The accuracy of this work and the conclusions reached are the responsibility of the author(s) alone and not the Tyndall Centre. Introduction China's economy is growing rapidly with nearly 10% per year increases in GDP over the last...

Long-term Emissions and Climate Stabilization Scenarios

Effects of Ipcc Sres Emissions Scenarios on River Runoff: a Global Perspective Effects of Ipcc Sres* Emissions Scenarios on River Runoff: a Global Perspective

This paper describes an assessment of the implications of future climate change for river runoff across the entire world, using six climate models which have been driven by the SRES emissions scenarios. Streamflow is simulated at a spatial resolution of 0.5 o ×0.5 o using a macro-scale hydrological model, and summed to produce total runoff for almost 1200 catchments. The effects of climate chan...